Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Padres
50-53
Marlins
52-51
47.3%52.7%
52.7%Model %
−$5.14EV per $100
53.1%Vegas %
Model pick
Miami Marlins ML (-125)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Ryan Gusto at full strength (30 IP). Market moving against this pick.
Away Pitcher
Germán Márquez
44.2 IP · 5.53 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Ryan Gusto
30.2 IP · 4.3 SIERA
Venue
loanDepot park
Park factor 0.96
Vegas Line
+104 / -125
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
sharp on AWAY
Line moved +18¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.