Model FavoriteJuly 24, 2026
Jays
47-56
Sox
52-49
44.3%55.7%
55.7%Model %
−$1.45EV per $100
54.0%Vegas %
Model pick
Boston Red Sox ML (-130)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Patrick Sandoval on a limited sample (9 IP).
Away Pitcher
Trey Yesavage
81 IP · 4.7 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Patrick Sandoval
9.1 IP · 3.64 SIERA
Venue
Fenway Park
Park factor 1.03
Vegas Line
+108 / -130
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -4¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.