Model FavoriteJuly 27, 2026
Diamondbacks
55-50
Nationals
53-52
46.6%53.4%
53.4%Model %
+$4.26EV per $100
48.9%Vegas %
Model pick
Washington Nationals ML (-105)
The Read
V10 diverges sharply from the market on a lower-confidence game (55%) - that pattern historically favors the market, so it is a pass. Miles Mikolas at full strength (98 IP).
Away Pitcher
Kohl Drake
5 IP · 4.19 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Miles Mikolas
98 IP · 4.7 SIERA
Venue
Nationals Park
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
-115 / -105
O/U 10
Sharp Signal
no data
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.