Model FavoriteJuly 27, 2026
Cubs
59-45
Pirates
53-52
45.2%54.8%
54.8%Model %
−$3.37EV per $100
54.2%Vegas %
Model pick
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-131)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Braxton Ashcraft at full strength (116 IP).
Away Pitcher
Jameson Taillon
72 IP · 4.44 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Braxton Ashcraft
116.1 IP · 3.33 SIERA
Venue
PNC Park
Park factor 0.98
Vegas Line
+109 / -131
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -6¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.