Model FavoriteJuly 27, 2026
Reds
48-55
Cardinals
53-51
42.8%57.2%
57.2%Model %
−$0.74EV per $100
55.1%Vegas %
Model pick
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-136)
The Read
V10 sees a modest gap from the market, but without the confidence to play it. Kyle Leahy at full strength (95 IP).
Away Pitcher
Andrew Abbott
111 IP · 4.88 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Kyle Leahy
95.1 IP · 4.37 SIERA
Venue
Busch Stadium
Park factor 0.98
Vegas Line
+113 / -136
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved 0¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.