Model FavoriteJuly 27, 2026
Guardians
54-52
Rays
61-43
49.5%50.5%
50.5%Model %
−$9.10EV per $100
53.1%Vegas %
Model pick
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-125)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Drew Rasmussen at full strength (104 IP). Mild sharp action against.
Away Pitcher
Parker Messick
117.2 IP · 3.78 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Drew Rasmussen
104.1 IP · 3.38 SIERA
Venue
Tropicana Field
Park factor 1.00
Vegas Line
+104 / -125
O/U 7
Sharp Signal
mild on AWAY
Line moved +11¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.