Model FavoriteJuly 27, 2026
Royals
44-62
Tigers
50-55
37.2%62.8%
62.8%Model %
−$4.49EV per $100
62.8%Vegas %
Model pick
Detroit Tigers ML (-192)
The Read
V10 leans this way with a calibrated read (63%). Framber Valdez at full strength (108 IP).
Away Pitcher
Luinder Avila
63 IP · 4.75 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Framber Valdez
108.1 IP · 4.34 SIERA
Venue
Comerica Park
Park factor 0.99
Vegas Line
+157 / -192
O/U 9
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved 0¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.