Model FavoriteJuly 27, 2026
Dodgers
67-38
Mets
43-62
56.1%43.9%
56.1%Model %
−$6.50EV per $100
57.3%Vegas %
Model pick
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-150)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Emmet Sheehan at full strength (87 IP).
Away Pitcher
Emmet Sheehan
87.2 IP · 3.66 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Freddy Peralta
109.2 IP · 4.28 SIERA
Venue
Citi Field
Park factor 0.97
Vegas Line
-150 / +124
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
neutral
Line moved -1¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.