Model FavoriteJuly 27, 2026
Yankees
59-45
Phillies
56-49
43.1%56.9%
56.9%Model %
−$17.00EV per $100
65.5%Vegas %
Model pick
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-218)
The Read
V10 diverges sharply from the market on a lower-confidence game (53%) - that pattern historically favors the market, so it is a pass. Cristopher Sánchez at full strength (132 IP).
Away Pitcher
Will Warren
99 IP · 4.07 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Cristopher Sánchez
132.2 IP · 2.82 SIERA
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Park factor 1.02
Vegas Line
+177 / -218
O/U 8
Sharp Signal
no data
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.