Model FavoriteJuly 27, 2026
Padres
52-53
Marlins
52-53
48.0%52.0%
52.0%Model %
−$5.72EV per $100
52.7%Vegas %
Model pick
Miami Marlins ML (-123)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Janson Junk at full strength (69 IP). Mild sharp action against.
Away Pitcher
Walker Buehler
94.2 IP · 4.48 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Janson Junk
69 IP · 4.58 SIERA
Venue
loanDepot park
Park factor 0.96
Vegas Line
+102 / -123
O/U 8.5
Sharp Signal
mild on AWAY
Line moved +8¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.