Model FavoriteJuly 27, 2026
Jays
48-57
Sox
53-50
42.9%57.1%
57.1%Model %
−$4.06EV per $100
56.9%Vegas %
Model pick
Boston Red Sox ML (-147)
The Read
V10 and the market are closely aligned - no clear lean. Ranger Suarez at full strength (91 IP). Mild sharp action confirms.
Away Pitcher
Kevin Gausman
115.2 IP · 3.87 SIERA
Home Pitcher
Ranger Suarez
91.1 IP · 3.57 SIERA
Venue
Fenway Park
Park factor 1.03
Vegas Line
+122 / -147
O/U 7.5
Sharp Signal
mild on HOME
Line moved -11¢
Published before first pitch and committed to a public record. V10 trained on 6,959 MLB games · 57.1% honest out-of-sample accuracy. Verify the record →
This is one pick from a tracked sample, so early results carry high variance. See the full record on the track record and how the model works in the methodology.